By Zeeshan A. Shah
The Earth, often called the “Blue Planet,” is covered by 70% ocean, not green forests or fertile land. Yet, despite this abundance of water, humanity faces an escalating crisis over its most essential resource—freshwater.
Every year on World Water Day, leaders and citizens renew calls to preserve water, but pledges are proving insufficient. In an era defined by climate change, cyber warfare, and deepening geopolitical rivalries, the global water crisis has become a flashpoint, threatening to ignite conflicts across continents.
Water as a Weapon
Water disputes are no longer hypothetical. With growing pressure on shared resources, water has become a strategic asset—and a weapon. According to global conflict data, 6,000 to 7,000 people die annually due to land and water-related conflicts. This includes civilian casualties, mass displacements, and deteriorating public health in war zones.
From Africa to the Middle East, South Asia to Europe, water has become a catalyst for violence:
- The Middle East is home to long-standing tensions around the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where Turkey, Iraq, and Syria struggle for access.
- In Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile has stirred fears in Egypt and Sudan, who rely on the Nile for survival.
- In Yemen, over 5 million people have suffered from water scarcity made worse by war.
- Iraq’s Mosul Dam, a critical lifeline, has been the site of power struggles between Daesh and Kurdish forces.
- The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has seen deliberate attacks on water infrastructure, further punishing civilians already facing food and medical shortages.
Syria and the Role of Drought
Few realize that the roots of the Syrian civil war trace back to a devastating drought in 2007, which triggered mass displacement and economic breakdown. Over 500,000 people died, and 20 million were displaced in what became one of the century’s most brutal wars. The conflict is projected to formally conclude in 2025, after nearly 15 years, with international sanctions expected to lift under a new government.
Water Conflict in South Asia: A Ticking Time Bomb
The stakes are particularly high in South Asia, where India and Pakistan—both nuclear powers—are increasingly at odds over water rights.
Recent tensions escalated after a false flag operation by India sparked a retaliatory air strike by Pakistan. During the confrontation, Pakistan’s Air Force downed three French-made Rafale jets, shaking defense markets and signaling the volatility of the region. Yet while missiles clash in the skies, the more dangerous conflict may be taking shape in the rivers below.
India’s dam-building activities, especially on the Chenab River during Pakistan’s dry season, are widely seen as a violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a critical 1960 water-sharing agreement.
Pakistan’s Strategic Options
Pakistan must urgently address this form of economic warfare, where water scarcity is being weaponized. A three-pronged strategy is proposed:
- Legal Action: Pursue enforcement of the IWT via the ICJ, UNSC, and World Bank.
- Diplomatic Pressure: Leverage the OIC, China, Russia, and Iran to hold India accountable for “water terrorism.”
- Military Deterrence: In a worst-case scenario, Pakistan could consider strategic military action to secure key dams near Sialkot and restore water flow, backed by tactical missile defense systems.
Reality Check: Treaty Limits and Water Math
It’s crucial to note that India’s total reservoir capacity on the western rivers is 1.8 MAF—well within the 3.6 MAF allowed under the treaty. This means any potential water cut-off would be temporary, lasting no more than 5–7 days. Moreover, releasing stored water too quickly risks catastrophic flooding on both sides, which discourages unilateral action.
Still, the need for cooperation and transparency has never been greater. If the treaty collapses, the region could plunge into a prolonged war.
Water Security and the Way Forward
With 200–300 million Pakistanis at risk of running out of safe drinking water, water security must become a national priority. Shockingly, Pakistan still lacks a comprehensive water policy.
Immediate actions include:
- Updating the 1991 Water Accord and building new dams.
- Investing in infrastructure—repairing water delivery systems and building treatment plants.
- Launching awareness campaigns to promote water conservation.
- Harvesting rainwater at both household and municipal levels.
- Constructing desalination plants along coastal regions.
- Implementing good governance through enforceable water management laws.
- Public-private partnerships for reliable service delivery.
The Global Context: A Shrinking Resource
As highlighted in “The Price of Thirst,” three key threats face water security worldwide: extremism, privatization, and scarcity. A UN report warns of a 40% global water shortfall by 2025, with water demand expected to rise 55% by 2050. Today, even 100 liters per person per day is barely enough in many parts of the world.
By 2050, 40% of the global youth is projected to live in Asia, with resource demand and climate risks rising sharply. If the world fails to act, water scarcity could derail economic growth, fuel more wars, and force mass migration from the Global South.
Call to Action: Dialogue or Disaster
Water is no longer a silent crisis. It is a strategic flashpoint. The time for symbolic pledges is over. Governments—especially those of India and Pakistan—must engage in serious bilateral dialogue, revive water-sharing mechanisms, and jointly prevent this crisis from triggering the next major war in South Asia.
The right to clean, safe drinking water is a basic human need—not a bargaining chip in political warfare. The choice is clear: cooperate to survive, or compete to collapse.
About the Author: Zeeshan Shah is a healthcare specialist, media broadcaster, thought leader and an environmental journalist and you can tweet him: @zeeshan82445998
