In a major setback for New Delhi’s defense and diplomatic ambitions, Tajikistan has directed India to vacate the Ayni Air Base near Dushanbe, ending a military presence that lasted more than 25 years. This decision marks the closure of India’s only overseas base and the loss of a crucial strategic foothold in Central Asia.
End of India’s Only Overseas Military Base
The Ayni Air Base, jointly developed by India and Tajikistan, has served as a critical hub for India’s regional operations. It played a vital role in maintaining logistical coordination, supporting intelligence efforts, and sustaining India’s strategic presence close to Afghanistan. The closure, therefore, represents not only a logistical loss but also a symbolic end to India’s aspirations of projecting power in Central Asia.
$100 Million Investment Lost
India had reportedly invested around $100 million in upgrading the base’s infrastructure. This included the development of runways, hangars, air traffic systems, and surveillance equipment. The investment was part of India’s broader effort to secure long-term access for its air and intelligence operations in the region. With Tajikistan’s order to vacate, this investment has effectively been written off.
Diplomatic and Strategic Implications
For decades, Ayni served as the cornerstone of India’s “northern frontier” policy, offering proximity to Afghanistan and serving as a counterbalance to regional powers such as China and Pakistan. However, recent geopolitical shifts appear to have altered Tajikistan’s strategic alignments. Analysts suggest that deepening ties between Tajikistan, China, and Russia may have influenced the decision to end India’s lease at the base.
This development also underscores the diminishing diplomatic leverage of New Delhi in Central Asia, an area once seen as vital to its security and energy strategy.
Opposition Calls It a “Strategic Failure”
The Indian opposition has described the loss of the Ayni base as a major strategic failure. Critics argue that the government’s inability to maintain relations in Central Asia reflects a broader weakening of India’s diplomatic outreach. The closure, they say, reveals gaps in India’s foreign policy approach, especially in regions where strategic competition is intensifying.
End of a Long-Standing Defense Ambition
The eviction from Ayni marks the end of India’s only overseas defense post — a facility that once symbolized its ambition to expand its influence beyond South Asia. With this development, India’s military footprint abroad has been reduced to zero, highlighting the challenges facing its regional defense strategy amid changing geopolitical dynamics.
Tajikistan’s move has not only dealt a blow to India’s military presence but also disrupted its long-standing efforts to build a security corridor in Central Asia. Unless New Delhi recalibrates its diplomatic engagement in the region, the closure of Ayni may well signal the end of a key chapter in India’s defense outreach.
