Scientists have estimated that rising temperatures caused by human-driven climate change were responsible for nearly 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer. The findings, released by researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, highlight the deadly consequences of extreme heat linked to global warming.
Instead of waiting for official mortality statistics, which often take months or years to be published, the team used climate and health modelling to produce a rapid projection of the toll.
The researchers examined temperatures across 854 European cities between June and August, concluding that global warming had made the summer 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter on average.
By combining historical mortality data with current climate conditions, they estimated that there were roughly 24,400 excess deaths during that period. Comparing this figure with a world without human-caused warming, they concluded that around 70 percent of these excess deaths – nearly 16,500 – were attributable to climate change.
The study warned that climate change may have tripled the number of heat-related deaths this summer. Elderly populations were the most affected, with more than 85 percent of the projected deaths occurring among people aged 65 or older. Cities hit hardest included Rome, which registered an estimated 835 deaths linked to climate change, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409.
Experts stressed that the figures are likely conservative, noting that heat-related deaths are often underestimated in official records, where causes such as respiratory or heart conditions are listed instead.
Researchers pointed out that similar studies, such as a Nature Medicine report on the 2023 European summer, found more than 47,000 heat-related deaths, suggesting that the real toll in 2024 could be higher.
With Europe experiencing its fourth-hottest summer on record, scientists warned that even slight increases in heatwave temperatures could mean the difference between life and death for thousands.
