President Vladimir Putin has largely abandoned the idea of peace talks with Kyiv after Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, which dealt a significant blow to the Russian leader, according to the independent news outlet Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska, citing sources.
“The Kremlin has concluded that they will aim to dismantle Ukrainian statehood. It seems the situation is headed toward unrestricted warfare, with both sides looking for ways to escalate,” one source told the outlet.
The source also noted that Putin has no intention of trading Ukraine-held territory in the Kursk region for Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine.
Earlier this summer, there were hopes that the war might end within six months to a year, bolstered by softening rhetoric from Kyiv and a significant prisoner exchange between Russia and the West, according to Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska‘s sources.
The Russian and Ukrainian militaries had also come close to a de-escalation agreement, which included mutual restrictions on striking energy infrastructure. The agreement was slated to be signed on Aug. 22-23 in Qatar.
“It would have been a mutually beneficial situation. Between 15% and 20% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity had already been knocked out, and winter was approaching for both sides,” a source involved in the negotiations told the outlet.
A broader de-escalation was also discussed, including bans on certain weapons and limits on strikes beyond a specific distance from the front line. However, all plans collapsed after Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region on Aug. 6, an operation that has continued for nearly two months.
Sources suggest that Putin now believes Kyiv used the preparations for the Qatar meeting as a diversion for its Kursk operation.
Those in Russia’s elite who favor peace talks are now in the minority, according to a senior official sanctioned by the West.
Another official, who regularly meets with Putin, said that if the West allows Ukraine to use Western missiles for deep strikes inside Russia, any possibility of peace talks will be “completely” off the table for the foreseeable future.
“It’s gone too far. I don’t see any peace process happening. Nothing will stop until Ukraine collapses,” said the head of a large state-owned enterprise in regular contact with Putin.
One source who meets regularly with Putin said the Russian leader would only consider using nuclear weapons if Russia entered an all-out war with the West. Putin’s need to maintain strong relations with Moscow’s BRICS allies is restraining him from escalating further, but the source added that he may increasingly consider nuclear options if his warnings are not taken seriously.
