The Denver Broncos will have to navigate a major obstacle when they take on the New England Patriots in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday. Quarterback Bo Nix is out with an ankle injury, leaving backup Jarrett Stidham to start under center. The winner advances to Super Bowl LX.
New England (14-3), the AFC’s No. 2 seed, cruised past the Houston Texans 28-16, while the top-seeded Broncos (14-3) narrowly defeated the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime. The Patriots have been perfect on the road this season at 8-0, while Denver is 9-1 at home, including postseason contests.
Denver wide receiver Troy Franklin (hamstring) and running back J.K. Dobbins (foot) are inactive. New England will be without outside linebacker Harold Landry (knee). Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET and will air on CBS and Paramount+.
Current Odds
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Spread: Patriots -3.5
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Over/Under: 43 points
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Moneyline: Patriots -218, Broncos +180
Why the Patriots Could Cover
Quarterback Drake Maye has had a standout season, completing 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and a 113.5 passer rating. In the postseason, he has four touchdowns and two interceptions. Maye connected with Stefon Diggs for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season, with 17 explosive plays of 20+ yards. Against Houston, Diggs caught four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots’ offense has been efficient and explosive, and their 8-0 road record shows they can handle hostile environments — a key factor in Denver’s high-altitude home stadium.
Why the Broncos Could Cover
With Bo Nix sidelined, Jarrett Stidham will step in for his first extended action since January 2024. Stidham completed 20 of 34 passes for 272 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a previous playoff loss to Las Vegas. In his career, he has thrown for 1,422 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Veteran wideout Courtland Sutton will be a critical target. In 18 games including the playoffs, Sutton amassed 78 catches for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. He had four receptions for 53 yards in Denver’s win over Buffalo and has multiple games with seven or more catches.
Game Trends and Predictions
SportsLine’s advanced model projects an under on the total, expecting roughly 40 combined points. The model also predicts one side of the spread will hit nearly 60% of the time, emphasizing the tight nature of this matchup.
The Patriots enter as slight favorites (-3.5) but Denver’s home-field advantage and playoff experience make this an evenly poised contest. Expect a high-stakes, tactical battle as both teams fight for a spot in Super Bowl LX.
For detailed picks, including which side of the spread the model favors, visit SportsLine’s projections.
