Pakistan’s headline inflation rose to 6.1% year-on-year (YoY) in November 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, surpassing the Ministry of Finance’s estimate of 5–6%. The consumer price index (CPI) stood at 6.2% in October 2025 and 4.9% in November 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4% in November 2025, compared to 1.8% in the previous month and 0.5% in November 2024.
For the first five months of fiscal year 2026 (5MFY26), inflation averaged 5.01%, down from 7.88% in the same period of FY25. Breaking it down by region, urban CPI inflation rose 6.1% YoY in November 2025, slightly up from 6.0% in October 2025 and 5.2% in November 2024.
Month-on-month, urban inflation rose 0.5%, compared with 1.5% in the previous month. Rural CPI inflation recorded a 6.3% YoY increase, lower than October’s 6.6% but higher than 4.3% in November 2024. On a monthly basis, rural inflation grew by 0.2%, down from 2.3% in the previous month.
The Ministry of Finance had projected that inflation would remain between 5–6% in November, citing “expected inflationary pressure building up” due to food price fluctuations and agricultural output challenges.
However, brokerage houses anticipated slightly higher figures. Topline Securities projected 6.5–7.0% YoY, attributing the increase to flood aftereffects and disruptions from the Afghan border closure affecting food supplies. JS Global forecasted a 6.3% YoY reading, citing rising food inflation projected at 7.2% YoY.
State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad said last week that the inflation trend aligns with the central bank’s forecasts and is expected to remain within the 5–7% target band over the medium term. The data underscores persistent inflationary pressures in Pakistan, particularly driven by food and energy prices, despite efforts to stabilize the economy.
