ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy has reached a significant milestone, with nominal GDP exceeding $400 billion for the first time, according to provisional figures approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).
The committee reported a projected GDP growth rate of 2.68% for the current fiscal year, raising the total economic size to Rs114.7 trillion — roughly $411 billion. This marks a considerable jump from Rs105.1 trillion ($372 billion) recorded last year.
Sohail Mohammed, CEO of Topline Securities, called the development a “notable recovery” amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. In a LinkedIn post, he pointed out that Pakistan’s nominal GDP in dollar terms has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% over the past five years.
The government aims to expand the economy to $1 trillion by FY2035 — a target Mohammed noted will demand consistent structural reforms, political stability, and prudent external account management.
Quarterly Growth and Sector Trends
Quarterly growth estimates have also been revised upward, with GDP increasing by 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2. Despite this momentum, the annual growth rate still falls short of the government’s initial 3.6% target. Topline Securities estimates average quarterly growth over the first nine months at approximately 1.8%.
Sector-wise performance remained uneven. In Q3, the agriculture sector grew by 1.18%, even as key crops underperformed. On the other hand, the industrial sector saw a contraction of 1.14%, primarily due to declines in mining, quarrying, and large-scale manufacturing.
Policy Support and Outlook
In a move to support economic recovery, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 11% earlier this month, resuming its easing cycle following a temporary pause in March. The central bank cited an improved inflation outlook as the reason for the rate cut.
Topline Securities forecasts full-year GDP growth to land between 2.5% and 3.0%, with agriculture expected to grow by 1.8%, industry by 1.0%, and the services sector by 3.4%.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its GDP growth projection for Pakistan in FY25 downward to 2.6%, from an earlier estimate of 3.2%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in achieving a robust and balanced recovery.
