ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has emerged as the country most affected by the Afghan Taliban’s 2021 takeover, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group. The Brussels-based independent think tank warns that while a ceasefire currently holds, Islamabad may launch further strikes if militant violence continues.
The report states that relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have sharply deteriorated, largely because the Afghan Taliban refuse to act against the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. As a result, security conditions inside Pakistan have worsened significantly over recent years.
Escalating violence along the western border
Since 2022, militant attacks have surged across Pakistan. In 2025 alone, armed groups killed more than 600 soldiers and police officers, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Islamabad holds the banned TTP responsible for most of these attacks and also blames Baloch insurgent groups. Moreover, Pakistani officials argue that India backs these militants, citing what they describe as credible evidence.
United Nations monitors, however, say the TTP benefits from Taliban support inside Afghanistan. In contrast, the Taliban deny hosting Pakistani militants and accuse Islamabad of misrepresenting domestic unrest.
After militants killed 11 Pakistani soldiers on October 8, Islamabad carried out cross-border airstrikes, including its first strike on Kabul, reportedly targeting TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud. Afghanistan retaliated by striking Pakistani military positions, causing casualties on both sides.
Regional instability and global conflicts
The report cautions that Pakistan may strike again if it links future attacks to Afghan territory. Although the Taliban lack comparable military strength, Kabul claims missile capabilities that could trigger harsher Pakistani retaliation.
Across South Asia, Pakistan’s relations remain fragile. Following brief conflicts in 2025 with Afghanistan and India, another major militant attack could shatter the uneasy calm. The report lists Afghanistan-Pakistan among 10 conflicts to watch in 2026 and warns that global instability, intensified during Donald Trump’s second term, shows little sign of easing.
