By Col. Muhammad Sabahuddin Chaudhry, IS (Retired)
The Pakistan–Afghanistan peace talks held in Istanbul have reached an impasse, with the third round of negotiations ending without progress. According to Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, the primary reason for the breakdown was Kabul’s reluctance to provide a written commitment to undertake concrete and verifiable action against terrorism—particularly targeting groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from Afghan soil. Tarar attributed the failure to Afghanistan’s unwillingness to curb cross-border militancy, despite repeated calls from Islamabad for accountability and cooperation. The Istanbul discussions followed an earlier round in Doha, which had successfully de-escalated border tensions through a ceasefire agreement on October 19. That ceasefire remains in effect, and no new border hostilities have been reported since the collapse of the Istanbul talks.
Islamabad maintains that the Taliban regime continues to shelter militant factions responsible for attacks inside Pakistan, while Kabul denies that its territory is being used for such operations. Despite mediation efforts led by Qatar and Turkey, negotiators failed to produce a workable framework for counterterrorism cooperation. As of Wednesday morning, Afghan authorities had not issued any official statement regarding the outcome.
Analysis: Implications of the Stalled Pakistan–Afghanistan Talks
- Trade Relations Pakistan remains one of Afghanistan’s largest trading partners, and bilateral trade plays a vital role in both economies. The latest diplomatic strain has disrupted cross-border trade, undermining regional economic stability. Afghanistan’s economy relies heavily on exports of fresh and dried fruits, nuts, carpets, livestock, timber, and handicrafts—all of which are vulnerable to border closures and political instability.
- People-to-People Contacts The two nations share deep cultural, ethnic, and familial connections, with many families divided by the Durand Line. Rising political friction has strained family reunions, cross-border trade, and social exchanges, weakening grassroots relations between the two societies.
- Exploitation of the Border Region Militant groups, including the TTP, continue to exploit the porous border to conduct attacks and sustain networks of influence. Criminal elements engage in smuggling, drug trafficking, and illicit trade, undermining governance and stability. External actors, including India, are alleged to exploit instability, further inflaming tensions.
Key Points
- Pakistan’s Stance: Islamabad has consistently demanded verifiable action from Kabul against terrorist networks operating from Afghan territory.
- Afghan Taliban’s Response: The Taliban administration has shown limited willingness to address Pakistan’s security concerns, declining to provide formal guarantees.
- External Influence: Reports indicate that external pressures may be shaping Kabul’s hardened position, further hindering reconciliation.
- Impact on Bilateral Relations: The stalemate has strained diplomatic relations, Page 1Defense & Strategic Affairs Review – October 2025 prompting Pakistan to consider enhanced border vigilance and additional policy measures to safeguard its security interests.
Regional Implications
The deadlock has broader consequences for regional peace and cooperation. It risks aggravating border tensions, undermining economic integration, and fueling militant resurgence across the region.
Effects on Both Countries and the Region
- Heightened Tensions: The failure of the Istanbul talks has increased the risk of renewed border clashes and deteriorating bilateral trust.
- Regional Security Concerns: Persistent militancy continues to threaten regional stability and counterterrorism efforts in South and Central Asia.
- Diplomatic Fallout: The impasse could lead to further isolation of Afghanistan and a slowdown in regional diplomatic and economic cooperation.
Conclusion
From a strategic defense perspective, the breakdown of the Istanbul peace talks underscores the widening gulf between Islamabad and Kabul’s security priorities. Pakistan’s insistence on verifiable counterterrorism action is rooted in national security imperatives, while the Taliban’s reluctance reflects internal factional dynamics and a lack of political will. The failure to establish mutual trust not only erodes bilateral diplomacy but also emboldens non-state actors operating along the border. Unless Kabul undertakes decisive measures against terrorist sanctuaries, Pakistan may be compelled to adopt a policy of proactive containment—strengthening border control, intensifying intelligence operations, and recalibrating its regional partnerships. In the evolving geopolitical landscape of South Asia, sustained instability in Afghanistan will continue to pose a multidimensional threat to Pakistan’s internal security, trade corridors, and long-term strategic depth.
