ISLAMABAD: The 107th National Accounts Committee (NAC) convened at the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives in Islamabad to scrutinize the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
They examined the annual GDP estimates for 2021-22 (Final), 2022-23 (Revised), and quarterly estimates from Q1 2016-17 to Q1 2023-24. Chaired by the Secretary of the Ministry, the meeting delved into extensive discussions.
During the 106th NAC session in May 2023, they unveiled provisional GDP estimates for 2022-23 and revised figures for 2021-22, updated with the latest available data. The final GDP growth for 2021-22 was pegged at 6.17%, slightly up from the revised 6.10%. Growth in the agriculture sector saw a marginal rise from 4.27% to 4.28%, while industrial activities improved from 6.83% to 6.95%, and services escalated from 6.59% to 6.66%.
Notably, specific sectors like Mining and Quarrying and Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply contributed to this growth.
In contrast, the revised GDP growth for 2022-23 shifted from a provisional estimate of 0.29% to -0.17%. Agriculture marked a significant improvement from 1.55% to 2.25%, despite certain crops witnessing a decline in production.
Conversely, industrial sector growth decreased, as did several segments within the services sector. The revised estimates indicated fluctuations across various industries and sectors, leading to alterations in the GDP figures.
An unprecedented move in Pakistan’s macroeconomic statistics history occurred during this NAC meeting—the approval of industry-specific methodologies for compiling Quarterly GDP and the series of quarterly growth rates from Q1 2016-17 to Q1 2023, considering 2015-16 as the base year.
The formulation of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) began soon after adopting the new national accounts base in January 2022. PBS engaged with the World Bank for technical assistance and conducted extensive meetings involving various national experts.
IMF’s inclusion of QNA compilation in its program further underscored the significance of this effort.
To fulfill the IMF-SBA benchmark, PBS collaborated with stakeholders and data providers, presenting revised GDP numbers for 2022-23 and Q1 2023-24 before the NAC in November 2023.
The committee approved the QNA series and the first quarter estimates of 2023-24, emphasizing the growth rates across agriculture, industry, and services.
Acknowledging the challenging task and collaborative efforts of PBS, Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan, the forum lauded the compilation of revised GDP estimates for 2022-23 and the comprehensive quarterly GDP data since Q1 2016-17.
