Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling alliance faces a challenging election in Bihar next month, as anger over joblessness and a voter list controversy threatens to erode support in one of India’s most politically crucial states. The upcoming poll could test the stability of Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which relies heavily on regional allies to maintain its parliamentary majority.
Bihar, India’s third most populous state with over 130 million residents, has long struggled with poverty and migration. Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar, a key Modi ally, has switched sides multiple times in the past, raising uncertainty about the NDA’s cohesion ahead of the November vote.
Recent polling by the Vote Vibe agency showed the NDA holding only a narrow 1.6% lead over the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal–Congress alliance, driven largely by Modi’s welfare initiatives such as cash transfers to over 12 million women. Analysts note that women could emerge as decisive voters, as many men migrate to cities like Delhi and Mumbai for work.
However, discontent simmers among voters like 85-year-old Jitni Devi, who says she was wrongly removed from the voter list and declared “dead,” preventing her from voting or collecting her pension. “People in my village tease me as a dead woman,” she said, underscoring rising frustration with electoral processes.
Unemployment remains another flashpoint despite government data showing a drop in youth joblessness from 30.9% in 2018–19 to 9.9% in 2023–24. Many young voters say opportunities remain scarce, fueling resentment toward the ruling alliance.
The opposition has promised a law guaranteeing one government job per family, while Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party insists it remains confident. Voting in Bihar will be held on November 6 and 11, with results expected on November 14.
