The Nobel Institute has expressed serious concern over an alleged espionage incident that led to the early leak of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner’s name.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was revealed as the recipient hours before the official announcement, raising suspicions of a sophisticated data breach. The Institute described the leak as “highly likely” linked to spying activities targeting the Nobel system.
Confirming the award at a press conference in Oslo, Nobel Committee Chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes announced Machado as the first Venezuelan and only the fourth South American to win the Peace Prize.
However, controversy quickly surrounded the announcement after Norwegian media reported unusual betting activity. The prediction market Polymarket recorded Machado’s odds surging from 3.75 percent to 73 percent overnight, with one user reportedly placing a $67,820 bet. Three accounts collectively earned nearly $27,000, one of which was newly created just before the wager.
Kristian Berg Harpiken, director of the Nobel Institute, told Norway’s TV2 that espionage targeting the institution was “highly likely.” He explained that while an insider leak seemed improbable, foreign actors may have accessed confidential information for political or financial motives, adding that such attempts had occurred for decades.
The controversy deepened when political and diplomatic tensions surfaced over Machado’s perceived alignment with Israel.
Critics noted her longstanding support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and her 2020 cooperation agreement with it. Following her victory, Machado stated that if elected in Venezuela, she would relocate the nation’s Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, reaffirming her intent to strengthen ties with Israel.
Her stance drew sharp criticism from pro-Palestinian groups and Norwegian lawmakers, who argued that awarding her the Peace Prize contradicts Alfred Nobel’s original vision of promoting peace and humanitarian values.
