Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has retained power following Monday’s federal election but fell short of securing the majority government he had sought to bolster his stance in upcoming tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre conceded defeat and pledged that his party would hold the Liberal minority government accountable.
As of the latest count, the Liberals were elected or leading in 164 ridings, while the Conservatives trailed with 147. A majority in Canada’s 338-seat House of Commons requires 172 seats, meaning the Liberals will need support from smaller parties to pass legislation.
Polling expert Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, attributed the Liberal win to three key dynamics: anti-Conservative sentiment, growing concerns over Trump’s trade threats, and the departure of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “Trudeau stepping aside opened the door for traditional Liberal and left-of-center voters to return,” Kurl told Reuters.
Carney had campaigned on a promise to take a firm stance with Washington over trade disputes and to invest heavily in reducing Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S. However, the unexpected strength of the right-leaning Conservatives—who focused on domestic issues and criticized nearly a decade of Liberal governance—narrowed the margin.
Minority governments in Canada typically last less than three years, making the path ahead politically uncertain.
The election results mark a remarkable turnaround for the Liberals, who trailed the Conservatives by 20 points in January before Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s renewed tariff threats reshaped the political landscape.
Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet in December after a public rift, celebrated the outcome. “Just months ago, people were questioning whether the Liberal Party would even maintain official status,” she told CTV. “Tonight, we are forming government. That’s an extraordinary result.”
Meanwhile, shifts in voter sentiment—especially from the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois—are believed to have bolstered Liberal fortunes, driven in part by anxiety over U.S. trade policies.
The loss is a major setback for Poilievre, whose campaign focused on economic concerns and argued that the Liberals had “broken” the country. Neither Carney’s nor Poilievre’s teams offered immediate comment on the projected results by CTV and CBC.
