As tensions between Pakistan and India escalate, experts warn that Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a significant challenge due to the Indian military’s ongoing modernization struggles and lack of sufficient advanced weaponry. Despite billions of dollars invested since 2019, India’s forces remain ill-prepared for a large-scale conflict, according to defense analysts.
The last major standoff between the two neighbors exposed severe shortcomings in India’s military, revealing an aging, bloated structure ill-suited to handling modern threats. Efforts to overhaul the military gained urgency after Pakistan shot down an Indian fighter jet in 2019, leading Modi to boost defense spending, encourage domestic arms production, and strengthen international arms partnerships.
Now, the effectiveness of those efforts may soon be tested. Following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which India alleges was linked to Pakistan, tensions have risen sharply. India has even threatened to block river systems flowing into Pakistan — a drastic move never before attempted, even during previous wars. Pakistan, denying involvement in the attack, called India’s threat an “act of war.”
The April 22 killing of over two dozen tourists has sparked public outrage in India, increasing pressure on Modi to respond forcefully. However, analysts caution that India’s incomplete military modernization might limit its options. While public sentiment demands action, the risk of exposing ongoing weaknesses could lead Modi to opt for limited measures such as airstrikes or special forces raids near the border — actions aimed at appeasing public anger without escalating into full-scale war. Pakistan has vowed to retaliate if attacked.
An Indian parliamentary report in 2018 had labeled 68% of India’s military equipment as outdated, and although updates since then have marginally improved the situation, over half of the gear remains obsolete. Military leaders acknowledge that while some progress has been made, achieving a modern, fully capable force will take more time.
Meanwhile, India’s broader strategic concerns now include China, following deadly skirmishes along their shared border in 2020. Preparing for a potential two-front conflict against both Pakistan and China has further strained Indian military resources.
Although India’s economy is significantly larger than Pakistan’s — now ranked as the world’s fifth largest — defense spending remains under 2% of GDP, a level experts say is insufficient given the country’s security demands. Efforts to localize defense production have begun, but meaningful gains are expected only over the long term.
Defense analysts point to persistent bureaucratic hurdles, internal rivalries between military branches, and geopolitical complexities as key obstacles. Modi has attempted reforms, but the process has been slow, compounded by setbacks like the 2021 death of a key general overseeing military restructuring.
Retired Indian General Dushyant Singh emphasized that while India has taken steps to fill military gaps by acquiring advanced systems from countries like Russia, France, and the United States, developing true “war stamina” will require sustained effort and time.
