Moldova, a small nation wedged between Romania and Ukraine, will head to the polls in October to elect a new president. But that is only part of a larger, complex picture. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, Moldovans will choose between the staunchly pro-West incumbent president and her challenger, who openly admires Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Adding to the tension, the elections come just months after the European Union began the process of integrating Moldova into its fold.
On Monday, the “unified opposition” candidate Alexander Stoianoglo announced his candidacy against the pro-West incumbent Maia Sandu, who supports EU membership. Stoianoglo’s major backers, the Socialists, are the country’s largest opposition party.
The Ukraine Parallels
Moldova’s elections are closely watched by the West due to parallels with Ukraine. Like Ukraine, Moldova is a former Soviet Union state. The Russian military campaign in Ukraine was triggered by Kiev’s decision to join NATO, a military alliance Moscow views as hostile.
Though the EU is primarily an economic union, Russia closely monitors developments in Moldova, which has a significant Russian-speaking minority similar to Ukraine and the Baltic states. The ongoing negotiations for Moldova’s EU membership have already raised concerns in the Kremlin.
“We know that many people in this country (Moldova) believe that the country should develop in all directions, and that the future interests of the country cannot be connected only with the European Union, but with such promising markets as the Russian Federation, as well as with integration processes on the territory of the former Soviet Union,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in late June.
Pro-Russian Regions
In Moldova’s context, “integration processes” refer to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway enclave, and the autonomous Gagauz region, which has a sizable ethnic Turkic population. Both regions have had longstanding issues with the central government in Chisinau, ranging from political to cultural.
Transnistria, with a population of 350,000, and Gagauzia, with 120,000 people, are strategically important as they border Ukraine. Western observers suggest that Moscow could use these enclaves to exert political pressure on pro-West Moldova.
Russia has deployed around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, which is significant given that Transnistria’s military has only about 5,000 soldiers. Some analysts argue that Moscow could use its military presence in Transnistria to pressure Ukraine from the southwest. In the Ukraine conflict, Russia has exerted pressure on Kiev from various directions, including Belarus in the north, Crimea in the south, and the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.
West vs. Russia?
Moldova’s upcoming presidential election has already seen competition between external forces, with the Western bloc and Russia vying to influence its outcome.
In mid-June, shortly before the EU Council opened accession talks with Moldova, the US, the UK, and Canada released a joint statement accusing Moscow of meddling in the Moldovan elections. They alleged that Russia was behind a disinformation campaign against the pro-Western Maia Sandu and warned of potential large-scale protests if the pro-Russian candidate loses.
In April, Moscow hosted a meeting of Moldovan opposition figures, including billionaire Ilan Shor and Gagauzia governor Evghenia Gutul, who expressed concerns about marginalization in a Europe-aligned Moldova. At this meeting, the opposition announced the formation of an anti-Western political alliance. Some analysts believe that the Moldovan Socialists might collaborate with Shor and his allies to oust Sandu.
