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UK Elections 2024: Muslim Vote Crucial in Approximately 100 Constituencies

New research indicates that the British-Muslim vote could be decisive in around 100 constituencies, many of which are key swing seats. The campaign group “The Muslim Vote” and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS) estimate that there are 92 to 120 seats where Muslims make up more than 10% of the population.

HJS research highlights that the Muslim vote could be particularly influential in 120 constituencies, especially in swing seats. According to HJS, Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of the 220 most marginal seats (58.6%). Hinduism is the second-largest minority religion in 23 of these seats (10.5%), followed by Sikhism in six seats (2.7%) and Judaism in three seats (1.4%).

Political consultancy Electoral Calculus identifies swing seats as those with a margin of victory of 10% or less. These 220 marginal seats constitute about a third (33.8%) of all available seats. Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, stated that their recent MRP poll with Savanta found religion to be a significant factor in voting behavior.

This trend was evident in the recent local elections, where candidates focusing on Gaza issues defeated Labour rivals in several areas, significantly impacting Labour’s traditional strongholds such as Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London, and Manchester. If this pattern continues in the July 4 elections, Labour’s support in these areas could decline further.

The Muslim Vote, a campaign group established by grassroots Muslim organizations to boost Muslim voting participation, has identified around 92 constituencies where Muslims account for more than 10% of the electorate.

However, it is noted that Muslims are a diverse group and do not vote uniformly, as they are divided by political, ethnic, and sectarian lines.

The list of the constituencies with significant Muslim populations:

  1. Bradford West (54%)
  2. Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (49%)
  3. East Ham (43%)
  4. Blackburn (42%)
  5. Birmingham Ladywood (42%)
  6. Bethnal Green and Stepney (40%)
  7. Dewsbury and Batley (39%)
  8. Bradford East (39%)
  9. Birmingham Perry Barr (38%)
  10. Ilford South (37%)
  11. Birmingham Yardley (37%)
  12. Birmingham Hodge Hill (33%)
  13. Leicester South (31%)
  14. Poplar and Limehouse (30%)
  15. Oldham West (28%)
  16. Manchester Rusholme (27%)
  17. Stratford and Bow (27%)
  18. Slough (27%)
  19. Luton North (27%)
  20. Ilford North (27%)
  21. Luton South and South Bedfordshire (26%)
  22. Rochdale (26%)
  23. Barking (24%)
  24. Gorton and Denton (24%)
  25. Brent East (23%)
  26. Leicester East (22%)
  27. West Ham and Beckton (22%)
  28. Queen’s Park and Maida Vale (21%)
  29. Walthamstow (21%)
  30. Bolton South and Walkden (21%)
  31. Edmonton and Winchmore Hill (20%)
  32. Leyton and Wanstead (20%)
  33. Walsall and Bloxwich (19%)
  34. Huddersfield (18%)
  35. Hayes and Harlington (17%)
  36. Ealing North (17%)
  37. Bradford South (17%)
  38. Oldham East and Saddleworth (17%)
  39. Ealing Southall (17%)
  40. Derby South (16%)
  41. Burnley (16%)
  42. Wycombe (16%)
  43. Preston (16%)
  44. Smethwick (16%)
  45. Holborn and St Pancras (16%)
  46. Enfield North (15%)
  47. Harrow West (15%)
  48. Feltham and Heston (15%)
  49. Brent West (15%)
  50. Brentford and Isleworth (15%)
  51. Peterborough (15%)
  52. Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (15%)
  53. Bolton North East (14%)
  54. Ealing Central and Acton (14%)
  55. Hendon (14%)
  56. Halifax (14%)
  57. Nottingham East (14%)
  58. Tottenham (14%)
  59. Manchester Central (13%)
  60. Harrow East (13%)
  61. Pendle and Clitheroe (13%)
  62. Birmingham Edgbaston (13%)
  63. Southgate and Wood Green (13%)
  64. Blackley and Middleton South (13%)
  65. Keighley and Ilkley (13%)
  66. Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West (12%)
  67. Hyndburn (12%)
  68. Croydon West (12%)
  69. Hackney North and Stoke Newington (12%)
  70. Dagenham and Rainham (12%)
  71. Cities of London and Westminster (12%)
  72. Coventry East (11%)
  73. Sheffield Central (11%)
  74. Leeds North East (11%)
  75. Birmingham Erdington (11%)
  76. Chingford and Woodford Green (11%)
  77. Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (11%)
  78. Kensington and Bayswater (11%)
  79. Mitcham and Morden (11%)
  80. Hackney South and Shoreditch (11%)
  81. Watford (10%)
  82. Leeds East (10%)
  83. Hampstead and Highgate (10%)
  84. Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)
  85. Sheffield South East (10%)
  86. Stretford and Urmston (10%)
  87. Bury North (10%)
  88. Streatham and Croydon North (10%)
  89. Hammersmith and Chiswick (10%)
  90. Uxbridge and South Ruislip (10%)
  91. Islington North (10%)
  92. Watford (10%)
  93. Leeds East (10%)
  94. Hampstead and Highgate (10%)
  95. Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)
  96. Sheffield South East (10%)
  97. Stretford and Urmston (10%)
  98. Bury North (10%)
  99. Streatham and Croydon North (10%)
  100. Manchester Withington (11%)

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