As the American public gears up to vote in the 60th presidential election on November 5, the intense competition between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump has brought seven critical swing states into the spotlight.
These states, known for their unpredictable voting patterns, are poised to play a decisive role in determining the next U.S. president.
The spotlight is on Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia—states with a history of swinging between Democratic and Republican candidates in past elections. Their outcomes will be crucial in this upcoming vote.
The significance of these states stems from the unique U.S. electoral system, the Electoral College. In this system, the president is not chosen directly by popular vote but by 538 electors. A candidate needs a majority of 270 electors to win the presidency.
Typically, the candidate who secures the most votes in a state claims all of that state’s electoral votes, making victories in populous and competitive states essential.
While major states like California and Texas have consistent partisan leanings, with Democrats and Republicans, respectively, the battleground states remain unpredictable and pivotal.
With updated electoral votes from the 2020 census, these key states hold a combined total of 93 electoral votes, making them central to the election’s outcome.
Polling data currently shows a razor-thin race between Harris and Trump in these key states. According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), Trump leads Harris by less than 1 percent in five of the seven swing states.
The updated delegate counts, based on the 2020 census, indicate that Arizona has 11 delegates, Nevada has 6, Wisconsin has 10, Michigan has 15, Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina has 16, and Georgia has 16 delegates.
For instance, a candidate who wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan would secure 50 delegates from just these three states. Conversely, losing four of these states would significantly hinder a candidate’s chances of winning the election.
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump secured the presidency despite receiving fewer total votes than Hillary Clinton by winning 304 electoral votes through strong performances in key states.
Key dynamics in the Harris-Trump race emerged on July 21 when President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, endorsing Harris as the Democratic candidate. At that time, Trump led Biden in both national and key state polls. Biden had 42.3 percent support in key state polls, compared to Trump’s 46.7 percent.
Following Biden’s withdrawal, Harris quickly closed the gap with Trump after her nomination. Currently, in key state polls, both candidates are nearly tied, with Harris at 47.3 percent.
According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), Trump leads Harris by less than 1 percent in five of the seven key states. In Arizona, Trump leads with 47.3 percent to Harris’s 46.8 percent; in Nevada, Trump has 47.4 percent to Harris’s 46 percent; in Wisconsin, Trump has 47.6 percent to Harris’s 48.6 percent; in Michigan, Trump has 46.5 percent to Harris’s 48.5 percent; in Pennsylvania, Trump has 47.7 percent to Harris’s 47.5 percent; in North Carolina, Trump has 47.2 percent to Harris’s 46.3 percent; and in Georgia, Trump has 48.1 percent to Harris’s 47.1 percent.
Recent polls in these seven swing states show Trump with 47.4 percent and Harris with 47.3 percent support.
Nationwide, inflation, economic issues, debates over abortion, and border security dominate voter concerns. Additionally, U.S. policy on Gaza is emerging as a significant issue.
Michigan, a key state with 15 delegates and the largest population of Muslim and Arab Americans in the country has seen a rise in “independent” voters critical of Biden’s unreserved support for Israel amid the Gaza conflict. These voters, critical of Biden’s Gaza policy, may abstain from voting for him but also do not see Trump as a viable alternative.
These independents are considering third-party candidates or voting for Harris if U.S. policy toward Israel changes. Harris has called for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza but has rejected demands for an arms embargo on Israel.
In Wisconsin, which Democrats reclaimed through Biden in 2020, the margin between Trump and Harris is less than 1 percent in favor of the Democrats.
Georgia, which was pivotal in the 2020 election and subsequent legal battles, is also emerging as a key state for 2024. In this state, where Republican leanings have reportedly increased, Trump won comfortably in 2016 but lost to Biden by just 0.3 percent in 2020, leading to significant disputes.
I am an experienced writer, analyst, and author. My exposure in English journalism spans more than 28 years. In the past, I have been working with daily The Muslim (Lahore Bureau), daily Business Recorder (Lahore/Islamabad Bureaus), Daily Times, Islamabad, daily The Nation (Lahore and Karachi). With daily The Nation, I have served as Resident Editor, Karachi. Since 2009, I have been working as a Freelance Writer/Editor for American organizations.
