OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) for 2024 makes it clear peak oil demand is not on the horizon. Despite ongoing discussions about transitioning to renewable energy, OPEC projects global oil demand will grow significantly, reaching over 120 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050, primarily driven by robust demand from non-OECD countries.
“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” OPEC stated in its WOO forward.
From 2023 to 2029, global oil demand is expected to rise by 10.1 mb/d, with non-OECD countries contributing 9.6 mb/d to reach 66.2 mb/d. In contrast, demand in OECD countries is projected to stagnate at around 46 mb/d. Looking ahead, non-OECD demand will continue to grow, adding 28 mb/d by 2050, while OECD demand is expected to decline. Key drivers of this growth include India, Other Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, with India alone anticipated to increase its demand by 8 mb/d.
Sectors such as petrochemicals, road transportation, and aviation are poised to play crucial roles in future demand. Petrochemicals are projected to account for an additional 4.9 mb/d of oil demand, driven by increasing needs for ethane and naphtha. Road transportation is expected to grow significantly before stabilizing, while aviation demand will add another 4 mb/d by 2050.
OPEC’s outlook emphasizes that oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy mix, accounting for over 50% through 2050. The organization highlights the necessity of ongoing investment in the oil sector, estimating that $17.4 trillion will be required by 2050 to ensure a stable supply.
According to OPEC, robust oil demand will persist for decades, fueled by growth in non-OECD regions and a continued need for investments in oil infrastructure. Despite the rise of renewables, OPEC maintains that oil will remain critical in meeting global energy needs for the foreseeable future.
