XIAN, Feb 19 – The International Monetary Fund maintained its 4.5% economic growth forecast for China this year but cautioned that weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy pose significant risks, according to its 2025 annual review released Wednesday.
The IMF said Chinaโs recovery remains uneven despite policy support measures. While authorities have taken steps to stabilise growth, the Fund warned that subdued consumer confidence and soft private investment could restrain momentum. In addition, weaker external demand may further pressure exports, a key driver of the worldโs second-largest economy.
The Fund emphasised that structural challenges, including property sector strains and local government debt, continue to weigh on medium-term prospects. Consequently, it urged policymakers to strengthen reforms aimed at boosting household consumption and improving productivity.
Georgieva urges faster structural reforms
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in December that she had encouraged Chinese leaders to make what she described as a โbrave choiceโ to accelerate structural reforms. Speaking in Beijing at the conclusion of discussions with Chinese officials, Georgieva called for reducing reliance on exports and shifting toward more consumption-led growth.
She stressed that deeper reforms would enhance resilience and support sustainable expansion in the $19 trillion economy. Moreover, she highlighted the importance of strengthening the social safety net to lift household confidence and spending.
Although the IMF kept its headline forecast unchanged, it underscored that global uncertainty, trade tensions and financial vulnerabilities could alter the outlook. Therefore, policymakers face mounting pressure to balance short-term stabilisation with long-term reform objectives.

