According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), the global unemployment rate is anticipated to see a slight decrease to 4.9% in the current year from 5.0% recorded in 2023, despite persistent inequalities within labour markets.
Initially, the ILO had projected unemployment to rise to 5.2% due to an anticipated increase in joblessness in advanced economies. However, the latest data indicates a more positive trend, largely attributed to lower-than-expected unemployment rates observed in China, India, and high-income countries.
Richard de Chazal, a macro analyst at William Blair, attributed China’s better-than-expected performance to the effective measures taken by Chinese authorities to sustain economic growth. Looking ahead, the downward trend in unemployment is forecasted to stabilize in 2025, with the rate remaining at 4.9%.
The report underscores a relatively stable global economic growth in early 2024, particularly in the United States, alongside a decrease in inflation, which has provided some relief to household incomes. However, uncertainties persist in the medium term due to expected monetary and fiscal policy adjustments globally, with potential delayed effects on the labour market.
Despite these improvements, the ILO highlights persistent challenges in employment opportunities, estimating a jobs gap of 402 million people in 2024, up from 399 million in the previous year.
Additionally, the report emphasizes the uneven playing field in the labour market, particularly for women, with significant disparities observed across different income brackets and regions. In low-income countries, the jobs gap for women stands at 22.8%, compared to 15.3% for men, while in high-income countries, the rates are 9.7% for women and 7.3% for men, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to address gender disparities in employment.
