Iran fights for its soul _ Middle East Conflict: 1953, 1963……. and now 2025

By Naqi Akbar (Exclusive Analysis of Israel-Iran conflict)

As the war in the Middle East rages on between Israel and Iran, there might be developments towards escalation as well as towards a brokered, uneasy peace. Whatever may be the ground situation, the current situation invariably leads the observer and the student of Middle Eastern history towards the troubled relationship between Iran and the West; specifically, the United States of America.

Holder of centuries-old civilization, cradle of Islamic thoughts from the days of Omar Khayyam, Shams Tabriz to the current wave of Islamic resurgence in the 20^th century, Iran has been a difficult ball game for the United States ever since its development into a modern nation state. The early encounters with parliamentary democracy in the start of the 20^th century, even when United States was not the dominant global player, saw the radical role of clergy or Rouhanioon in keeping the local dictatorships and external influences at bay, in whatever way it was possible for the stakeholders. The abdication of Raza Khan in 1941 during the second world war, followed by the ascendence of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Raza Pahlavi and rise of United States as a dominant power posed new challenges to the Iranians.

The 1950s saw the rise of Mohammad Mosaddeq as a nationalist leader of mass following, despite being under the tutelage of the monarchy led by Mohammad Raza. Mosaddeq pushed for the nationalization of Iranian oil fields which was secretly opposed by the Shah and openly opposed by the British and Americans. The nationalization of 1951 brought Iran into a very favorable playing field with the western powers emerging from the damage inflicted by the second war.

For very apparent reasons, the western powers led by United States were not to sit idle. The events in 1953 to oust the nationalist Prime Minister Mosaddeq resulted in counter coup, where the Shah has to flee the capital towards western destination. The CIA and MI5 orchestrated the coup in the favor of restoration of the Shah soon after and the pro west Shah of Iran was restored back to throne on August 19, 1953 with the help of factions within the army, among the religious right, the left wing as well as street support engineered by the CIA operatives working with strong arms of the city, the Iranian equivalent of Goondas, as well as anyone who can muster support among common man through fake slogans, necessary for any coup like situation.

Later documents available in the George Washington University National Security Archives reveal that cash from the British and US intelligence agencies flowed like anything to muster support for the coup and in the favor of Shah, or a ruler supported and backed by the West. That was literally the first ever encounter between the emerging Iran and the west.

The restored Shah after the coup cracked down upon the nationalist elements like any other despot and that period was punctuated with suppression and executions. It was not before 1963, when the pro-western moves by the Shah were met surprisingly by the religious leader whose name was Ayatollah Khomeini. The west led reforms and the bill for special status for the American advisors sparked outrage in 1963 when people came out in the streets against what they called a fraudulent referendum installing the Shah in a constitutional manner or paper work.

The 1963 disturbances, led to Khomeini exile first to Turkey and then to Najaf Iraq in 1964. The Iranian political spectrum, shocked by the suppression of dissent in 1953 and again in 1963, led to the conclusion that armed response to the monarchy was the only option available. Incidents in early 1971 when US Air Force advisors were killed by Mujahideen Khalq Islamic armed group led to the SAVAK infiltrating the group and orchestrating a Marxist coup, the type of intelligence operations witnessed in neutralizing dissident groups to date in other neighboring nation states.

The 1979 revolution was the high point when the Iranian society tried to crave a path for itself. There were teething problems in the start, however, closer look suggested that the western powers were never sold to the Idea of an Iran managing itself independently. Iran had its dose of civil wars encouraged and instigated by the western powers to the point that the splinter groups were able to strike deep into the leadership centers and kill key figures in the administration as well as in the parliament. The Summers on 1981, remain the period in the history when the battle lines within the Iranian society were exploited optimally by the distractors. A type of situation again experienced in the opening salvo of the IDF attack on Iran, when top leadership, specifically in the IRGC was targeted whether they were at the residences or were at command centers elsewhere in the capital Tehran. The foreign intelligence assets especially the MOSSAD made full use of the angry Iranians, not happy with the Nezam or the Islamic Republic to made their operations a success.

Without fail the early hours of the IDF strikes presented a situation of Iran being taken off guard and not even able to strike back effectively. It was not before the passage of 72 hours and after when Iran struck back with full force, making Israel and equal hell in the process. Estimates show that one third of Tel Aviv is shambles and the same is the case with Haifa.

With 46 years into the movement which succeeded in 1979, that movement has its supporters as well as distractors. What has been witnessed in today Iran is that both groups are clearly standing with what they want to do. The part of society opposing the Nezam is making no bones about its distraction to the system and the ones for the Nezam are making it for others to feel.

The infiltration of Israel into the Iranian society is the indicator of people opposed to the Nezam, while those standing with Nezam, now include not traditionally the religious devout, but secularized Iranians, women not taking the mandatory scarf, who feel that the ‘Akhund” or the ‘Mullah regime has taken care of the national honor as were the Mosaddeq supporters in 1953.

It is ironic that the gadgetry purchased by the deposed Shah like the F 4 and F 14 jets which were meticulously preserved by the Nezam are now being pinpointed by the distractors of the Nezam for an obvious repeat of the 1953 August 19 coup. The son of the deposed Shah seems to be the convenient figurehead for ‘regime change’ or ‘MIGA’, as recoined by Trump administration.

Conclusively, the conflict between the supporters and distractors of Nezam, known to the world as conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran is likely to be an attrition and a long drawn one, with honestly no quick solution and no guarantee which side with prevail. For Iran, it is again a fight for its soul.