Pakistan, since its inception, has remained under the influence of global powers, often at the cost of its internal stability. As emphasised by Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik, who holds a PhD in Strategic Security Management of CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) offers Pakistan a chance to transition from a security state to an economic state.
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah once prophesied that “Pakistan is the pivot of the World, placed on the frontiers on which the future position of the World revolves” — a sentiment now echoed by Russian scholar Andrew Korybko, who has termed Pakistan as the Pivot state of the 21st Century. Positioned between South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Pakistan has long been a battleground for great powers — from British colonial forces to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which created the mujahideen and later global terrorism. This pattern of conflict has cost Pakistan dearly.
Now, the world is witnessing a transition, with China and the United States emerging as rival global powers. Ideally, Pakistan should balance relations with both. However, global politics rarely allows such neutrality. As the U.S. once said during the War on Terror: “You’re either with us or against us.” The same dilemma applies now.
Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik argues that Pakistan’s strategic location is both a blessing and a burden. A review of Pakistan’s foreign alliances reveals a nation that has often paid more than it has gained. Decades of conflict — from wars with India, Soviet engagements, to terrorism — have weakened Pakistan’s political and economic infrastructure. Warfare has stunted the growth of institutions and drained cultural and intellectual capital. As Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik notes, prolonged insecurity leads to the evaporation of intelligence. People with resources fly off to safer pastures, while sycophancy and short-termism flourish.
In his reflections, Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik highlights how extended warfare has not only drained the economy but also damaged Pakistan’s national character. He quotes a poignant proverb: “If wealth is lost, nothing is lost. If health is lost, something is lost. But if character is lost, everything is lost.” For Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik, this encapsulates the essence of Pakistan’s decline, where continuous conflict has eroded its institutional strength and social integrity.
General Salik sees CPEC as a turning point — from destruction to development. Even if it brought zero economic benefit, he claims, it would still be better than the path of violence. CPEC signals a shift from “conflict to cooperation,” representing a vital alternative for Pakistan’s future.
CPEC’s conception dates to 2004 during General Pervez Musharraf’s tenure, though it only gained international traction in later years. Shockingly, Pakistan launched its first PhD program in CPEC studies only in 2022, underscoring a lack of foresight. This reactive approach, Salik warns, has limited Pakistan’s ability to fully leverage CPEC.
Many question whether China’s intentions are self-serving. Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik points to scholars like George Friedman and Robert D. Kaplan, who argue that China cannot be a true superpower while depending on vulnerable maritime routes, especially the Strait of Malacca. The “Malacca Dilemma” — the fear that this chokepoint could be blocked — pushes China toward overland alternatives like CPEC. Thus, China’s interest is strategic, and more than financial.
Having developed its eastern and southern regions, China now turns to the west, for which Pakistan’s cooperation is vital. For Pakistan, CPEC is more than an infrastructure initiative; it’s an economic lifeline. However, the project’s success hinges on political clarity, which remains lacking. Salik questions whether Pakistan will continue with Western alignment or pursue deeper ties with the East.
The Gwadar Port, the world’s deepest, is central to this strategy. With a 19-meter draft and a 400 million metric ton annual capacity, Gwadar was initially managed by the Singapore Development Authority, but poor connectivity led to failure. China took over and incorporated the port into CPEC, turning it into a cornerstone of regional logistics.
CPEC includes two routes: the eastern route, through Punjab, and the western route, through KPK and Balochistan. While the eastern route faces fewer security threats, Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik advocates for the western route to promote inclusive development.
CPEC’s two phases have had uneven success. Phase one dealt with energy and infrastructure. Phase two focuses on Special Economic Zones (SEZs) but has been delayed by COVID-19, political instability, and bureaucratic inefficiency. Currently, CPEC is estimated to be 5 to 7 years behind schedule.
A recurring question is whether Balochistan will benefit or be sidelined. Salik contends that due to Gwadar’s location, Balochistan is indispensable. Still, challenges remain — from Afghanistan’s instability to poor internal governance. Historically, Balochistan has been neglected. As late as 2014, Quetta only received newspapers if planes arrived, highlighting it disconnection by land route.
The tribal governance system is another hurdle. General Musharraf said that about 95% of Balochistan is under Sardars (tribal chiefs). General Musharraf tried converting these from Category B (tribal) to Category A (state-administered) areas. But political leaders reversed this decision, preserving a system resistant to modern governance.
Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik categorises forces around CPEC as either enablers or restrainers. While China and Pakistan enable progress, India and the U.S. act as restraining forces. External adversaries exploit internal divisions, and governments often fail to treat CPEC as a transformative project.
Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik criticises Pakistan’s negotiation stance, citing a lack of preparedness. The PTI government tried to renegotiate more favourable terms, straining ties with China but signalling a shift toward assertiveness.
He contrasts Pakistan’s alliances, asserting that Pakistan has lost more with the West than it has gained. The War on Terror cost Pakistan $123 billion and immense human loss, yet yielded just $20 billion in aid. By comparison, China has consistently supported Pakistan.
Supporting this, journalist Zahid Hussain, in “Frontline Pakistan”, argues Pakistan shielded U.S. interests for decades but received little in return. Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik urges a strategic realignment toward China, driven by self-interest rather than sentiment.
China values Pakistan as a partner, evident in its response to regional events, including tensions with India. Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik believes that, unlike the U.S., which uses Pakistan as a client state, China’s relationship is more stable and long-term.
Repeated instances of coercion further aggravate the trust deficit between Pakistan and Western powers. Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik references how during the War on Terror, the U.S. presented Pakistan with a binary: “You’re either with us or against us.” This kind of diplomacy cornered Pakistan into decisions that proved detrimental to its national cohesion and long-term interests.
Furthermore, Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik critiques the broader strategic culture of Pakistan. He points out the reactive nature of its policy-making, where instead of being proactive and planning, Pakistan often responds under pressure. The delayed academic and technical response to CPEC is one such example. Without building intellectual infrastructure and research-based institutions, Pakistan cannot hope to benefit from such strategic ventures.
He also addresses internal challenges — corruption, tribal politics, and a fractured national narrative — as impediments to CPEC’s success. According to him, enabling Balochistan to become a stakeholder in its development is key. Decades of marginalization have alienated the region, but CPEC provides an opportunity to reverse this trajectory.
Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik refers to a development paradox: TV Paul has said, while the Middle East suffers from the resource curse, Pakistan suffers from a strategic curse — its location invites external interest but has not translated into domestic strength. Bridging this gap requires institutional discipline, transparent governance, and long-term planning.
He also emphasizes the importance of military-civil coordination in handling megaprojects like CPEC. Security forces have played a crucial role in protecting CPEC installations, but for sustainability, civilian institutions must take ownership, particularly in governance and resource allocation.
On a philosophical note, Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik invokes the words of Quaid-e-Azam, who stated: “our duty to the state comes first; our duty to our province, to our district, to our town, and our village and ourselves comes next.” This hierarchy, Major General (R) Dr. Samrez Salik argues, must inform Pakistan’s foreign and domestic policy, placing state interest above parochial and sectarian divides.
In conclusion, Major General (R) Dr.Samrez Salik provides a compelling argument for why CPEC must be viewed as more than a development project. It is a strategic lifeline that demands vision, discipline, and national consensus. For Pakistan, the path forward lies in shedding reactive policies, embracing institutional reform, and securing its future through sovereign, long-term alliances. The time to act is now — before strategic opportunities turn into missed chances.
