An independent tracking project reports that verified Russian military fatalities have now exceeded 200,000. The project tracked casualties among journalists from BBC Russian and Mediazona as well. While this number is staggering, researchers stress that it likely underestimates the true human cost of the invasion over the past four years.
Shifting Demographics of the Fallen
The data reveals a major shift in the makeup of the Russian forces. Volunteer fighters, mobilized citizens, and recruited inmates now account for 57% of total deaths. Researchers are still processing entries from 2025, but they expect last year to be the deadliest of the war. Preliminary findings suggest that more than 90,000 soldiers died in 2025 alone.
Geographic Disparities in Military Losses
The war’s impact remains uneven across Russia’s vast territory. The republics of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Sverdlovsk region have suffered the highest number of deaths, losing over 23,000 people since February 2022. By contrast, Moscow’s death toll remains much lower despite its large population, with fewer than 3,200 confirmed fatalities.
Meanwhile, global bodies provide even more ominous forecasts. The Center for Strategic and International Studies predicts that Russian casualties could number 325,000 by the end of 2025, with almost 900,000 troops wounded or missing in action. The Russian government has dismissed these foreign estimates, and there has been no update to the military death toll since September 2022. Away from the front lines, the United Nations reports almost 15,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine, while Russia reports 8,000 civilian deaths on its soil.
