KARACHI: As the world bids adieu to the calendar year 2024, there is much anticipation as well as skepticism for the year 2025. Keeping in view the fact that the receding year has been a game changer and simultaneously a devastating year for many, the hopes and skepticism are equally justified. Not to ignore the fact that the developments in the globe have an undeniable impact on the way events are unfolding in Pakistan.
To begin with, the election results in the United States are going to be the biggest factor in the constructive or destructive trends going forward in the hotspots in the geo-political map; North Korea deadlock, China encirclement, and lastly the war in the Middle East.
Regards North Korea, the new US administration keeping in view its track record, might not be getting into the conflict. Likewise, the war with China might translate into a trade war more than any actual combat in East Asian seas. Regarding the ongoing war in the Middle East; especially keeping in view the fact that the previous Trump administration has been a vociferous supporter of the Abraham Accords, given that the IDF has advanced beyond the permissible limits in making that accord a reality; it is a safe bet that the conflict instead of winding down might escalate for a proverbial photo finish.
Elaborating the rationale for that photo finish, the previous Trump administration’s support for the Abraham Accord, and crippling sanctions over Iran; all combined to make an obvious point; forcing the Muslim states to diplomatically accept Israel; in other words, the success of Abraham Accords and weakening of the resistance to the Accord by trying an obvious regime change in Iran.
That situation is expected to escalate on two points. Despite remarkable resistance by the Hezbollah and Hamas to the one-sided IDF campaign with full support from the Biden administration, the setbacks on the two above mentioned fronts and change of leadership in the center of resistance; Iran make it an easy ride for the Trump administration to reach its goal.
The near genocidal war campaign undertaken by the IDF through its Air Force has caused colossal loss of infrastructure and life in Palestinian territory. The declared resolve of the Netanyahu government to ensure that nothing is left living in the war zone means that the Israeli government has practically laid down a conducive ground for the Trump administration to go forward with the Abraham Accords.
With the loss of Syria to Iran as a friendly front-line state, there are few options for Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas to oppose the Abraham Accord, while the Trump and Netanyahu administrations are fully in control to make the most of the situation.
Internally, the Iranians might be looking for the impeachment of Zarif as the Vice President for strategic affairs or a possible impeachment of the new president elect; but the hard fact remains that June onwards Iran has lost or ceded much ground to the IDF due to its somewhat ‘mysterious’ inaction.
Any new sanctions on Iran impacting the cost of living for an ordinary Iranian coupled with reform government in Iran withdrawal from power generation in hard winters; meaning lesser cooling options for the Iranians in the period leading up to the Norouz, can potentially make the job for the Americans from within Iran mush easier than anticipated.
There is obviously going to be resistance from the sections of Iranian society which are loyal to the Islamists to make their presence felt, politically as well as in the strategic sense. That can be the cause of civil war in Iran, which can turn bloody on both sides of the divide. However, given the ground realities, the going for the Iranian revolutionary set up is likely to be tough once the Trump administration gets into the act through the sanctions.
Moving to Syria, the new puppet revolutionaries are likely to follow the path set by the Netanyahu and Trump administrations. Recently Iranian government is reportedly being demanded US$ 30 Billion for Civil War damages for its support to the old ‘Baathist Regime’ during the 2011 to 2024 period. That situation coupled with other factors can translate into an attrition and possible war between Iran and IDF.
With the Middle East not likely to deescalate after the swearing in of Trump in Washington DC; the year 2025 might have much more regime changes in the store; which can include Iran and subsequent changes elsewhere; not to ignore Pakistan.
In the context of Pakistan, the dice might be inverted for the political players here. Given the fact that the Biden government was not very much inclined to have its impact on Pakistan, making it an easy ride for the establishment to have its way; as they liked to; the current change of sentiment in United States regards Pakistan; starting with objections over February 2024 electoral process, the Pakistan Army Missile program and lastly the Human Rights Situation in Pakistan strongly indicates that with the new president on the seat in White House; winds of positive change can blow in Pakistan if not in rest of the world.
In Pakistan, there can be changes; mostly modeled as palace coups suggesting that United States might be well changing its priorities in this country. United States would definitely not like to abandon Pakistan altogether; however, would take corrective action and then withdraw and observe.
Changes in Pakistan will likely balance out various players, if not eliminating the contradictions altogether in the political map. United States, might not want a true form of democracy to ever flourish in Pakistan, given that fact that its rating since inception has been of a client state with nil cultural baggage or even a political legacy.
Coming back to the global scenario; the geo political tensions have the potential to escalate further and actually borne out tangible results, which can be multiple regime changes; especially in the Middle East. Looking forward the Syrian; ‘story’ if not winded down properly by the international community has the potential to destabilize the region further, much greater than the fall of Baathist government in Iraq in 2003. If the governments involved can put their weightage, then there can be chances of normalcy in the coming days.
The simmering assertiveness of the Turkish nation state given 100 years have passed since the 1923 treaty which ceased Turkish control of the Aran lands; the new harsh realities where the Türkiye and IDF have a joint Syrian project have the potential to complicate things. With the Iranian ‘obituary’ in process courtesy Zarif administration; the IDF and Turkish established order being the prime stakeholders in the new setup, peace still cannot be guaranteed.
For Pakistan, the impact of these developments is undeniable. If the popular will triumphs in Pakistan, the stances over Abraham Accords would still be the deciding factors or stumbling blocks for the new political dispensation in Pakistan. Conclusively the world in general and the region encompassing Middle East is up for surprises and unpredictable scenarios all along.
About the Writer: Muhammad Naqi Akbar has a diversified exposure spread over 34 years with the central bank, business policy advocacy infrastructures, and print media. He has been lately contributing to select periodicals and other publications. He can be reached at naqikbr@gmail.com
