IMF
KARACHI: According to a report on Sunday, the rupee is anticipated to maintain stability in the coming months, largely due to the possibility of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another bailout program expected in June.
Currently trading at 278 against the dollar, the local currency is projected to range between 290 and 301 against the greenback.
A survey conducted by Topline Research, incorporating insights from various market participants on macroeconomic and market factors, indicates a more optimistic outlook for the stock market compared to previous months.
The brokerage firm emphasized the unlikelihood of a significant depreciation in the rupee. The survey revealed that 49% of respondents anticipate the local currency to remain within the 290 to 310 range against the dollar by the end of the year.
This contrasts with the 38% who held this view three months ago regarding the rupee-dollar parity by June 2024.
In December 2023, only 2% of respondents expected the rupee to fall within the same range by June this year. However, the latest survey shows that 23% now believe the rupee may trade between 250 to 270 against the dollar.
While formal discussions on the new IMF deal have yet to commence, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has indicated that Islamabad aims to reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new bailout package by the fiscal year’s end. Details of the agreement are expected to be discussed during the spring meetings.
Aurangzeb revealed plans to lead a Pakistani delegation to the US capital around mid-April, stating that the IMF has shown receptiveness to a “larger and longer program.”
Despite last week’s staff-level agreement between Islamabad and the IMF on the second and final review under the $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement, the IMF’s executive board has not set a date for considering the completion of the second review and the release of the third tranche of $1.1 billion. Approval for disbursement is anticipated by the end of April.
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