He was criticized and maligned from the day he took his office. Some political pundits swore he would prove a weak chief executive for the country’s most populous province. Others insinuated he was being brought in as part of a temporary
arrangement to keep the seat warm for some other contender.
But Usman Buzdar has been running the largest province of the country for more than three years and he shows no signs of stopping now.
Usman Buzdar was a surprise package when his name was announced by PTI chief Imran Khan at a time when some heavyweights like Aleem Khan, Fawad Chaudhary were also vying for the position.
To make matters worse for him, his government’s majority in the provincial assembly was razor-thin, keeping the discussions of a no-trust move against him alive all along. Nothing of the sort, however, has come to pass.
More recently, after a no-trust motion was tabled in Baluchistan against Chief Minister Jam Kamal, such a move in Punjab came under discussion again as senior Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Qamar Zaman Kaira offered PML-N to join hands for a no confidence move in Punjab. With some political statements from Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) highlighted the issue.
The initiative, however, quickly lost steam as senior Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Rana Sanaulah asked PPP to first complete, ensure, and prove majority for a successful in-house change.
Numbers game
To understand the scenario, first of all we have to look at the numbers in the provincial assembly where there are 370 members of six parties. According to the official website of the Provincial Assembly, the ruling PTI has 182 seats while its allies Pakistan Muslim League Q has 10 and Pakistan Rah-e-Haq party with one seat brings the total strength of the ruling alliance to 193.
Four of the five independent MPAs in the Assembly support the ruling coalition but they are independent in their decisions and are not legally bound to support government on every issue.
On the other hand, the opposition PML-N has 165 seats while the PPP has seven, making for a total of 172. The difference, therefore, stands at about 20. This means the opposition can turn the tables on Buzdar government if it can persuade PML-Q and a few independents to switch sides. However, their majority at 186-183 will be even thinner than Buzdar’s 183-172.
A potentially problematic scenario is PTI’s own Tareen group – with a strength of nearly two dozens of members – going rogue and joining hands with the opposition. But any such move would be at the pain of the MPAs crossing the floor being disqualified.
Whether Jahangir Tareen – or an opposition group wooing him – muster an inducement substantial enough to overcome this pain is open to question.
To sum it up, Buzdar’s numbers are precarious, but the opposition dare bring a no-trust motion against him because if such a motion succeeds, their numbers would be even more insecure.
The PPP line
PPP is a strong advocate of in-house change, especially in Punjab, but with just seven seats in a house of 370, it simply lacks the clout to undertake any such venture on its own. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari repeatedly made his case for a change in Punjab but none of it has passed the muster with the PML-N, the real heavyweights in Punjab Assembly.
PPP considers in-house change in Punjab not only because it seems viable but also because its success could deal a major blow to Khan’s PTI in political and psychological terms.
The PML-N view
Elements in PML-N earlier did some homework and calculations to regain power in Punjab, but the initiative got nowhere after it met vehement opposition but some of their top leadership specifically Nawaz Sharif was always against such move for some reason. With some informal and off the record chit chat with few N league brains it seems that
PML-N considers a weaker and unpopular chief minister like Usman buzdar is politically favourable for them as they think poor performance of Buzdar Government and lack of powerful leadership in the province weakening Tehreek-e-Insaaf support base and actually pulling PTI voters towards PML-N.
So why should they get rid of a CM who is actually politically beneficial for them.
The other major issue is a lack of trust between PML-N and PPP as after some defeats in an abortive no confidence motion against Chairman Senate Sadiq Sanjrani and again in election of Chairman Senate between Sadiq Sanjrani and Yousuf Raza Gillani.
The opposition coalition lost the election despite clear majority, causing embracement and demoralization to their supporters and members. PML-N is wary of a repeat of that episode. Lunging for an opportunity not really there could inflict great political damage on the party, especially when new elections are less than two years away.
That’s why they are asking PPP to complete and ensure numbers and strength which seems an unwillingness on their part.
The PML-Q factor
With 10 seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly, PML-Q is the third largest party in Pakistan’s largest legislative chamber. It an ally the Buzdar that holds the fate of the Buzdar government in its hands. If it switches sides, the government has little chance of standing.
In the recent past, PML-Q leader and Speaker Punjab Assembly Chaudhry Pervez Elahi had some reported contacts with some senior PML-N leaders. But PML-Q has a clear stance that Usman Buzdar should remain in power otherwise their candidate should replace them, a party insider told The Truth International (TTI).
Buzdar has enjoyed strong backing from his skipper Imran Khan who has consistently stood behind him like a rock. He famously called him the Waseem Akram Plus of his team and declared him a low-profile but efficient head of provincial government.
In the final reckoning, a divided opposition strengthens Buzdar’s hand as much as Khan’s wholehearted support. This is why despite his wafer-thin majority and pockets of criticism of and silent opposition to his rule within his own party ranks, Usman Buzdar is safe in be replaced so far and still seems on safe side.
