The jury is still out on whether to call the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan a new dawn of hope or the onset of a nightmare. Should we call it “the Fall of Kabul”? Or will “the Liberation of Afghani- stan” depict the spirit of the historical event better? It will be some time before we get the answers to these questions.
Ultimately, the answers remain in the hands of the Taliban.
The fall of Kabul to the Taliban on 15 August 2021 bewildered the world with palpable and widespread despondency, particularly in the West. The accusations are still flying left and right with no under-standing of the unfolding events or their underlying dynamics, and not even a vague perception of what the future holds.
Back in the United States, President Joe Biden is weathering a firestorm of scathing criticism for his unilateral decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan, without any consultation with allies.
Former President Donald Trump had the cheek to term the decision as ‘humiliating’ although in-fact it was he who struck a deal based on a cut-and-run policy with the Taliban, setting the stage for what we have seen in Afghanistan.
President Joe Biden stands firm and unapologetic in the face of all criticism. He is adamant that his decision to go along with Trump’s Doha deal is final, and he is not going to hand over this generational war to the fifth president of the United States of America.
His statement could mean Biden is content to be a one-time president. On the other hand, the fact remains that if you look through the haze created by allegations and counter-allegations, the withdrawal from Afghanistan enjoys bipartisan support in the USA.
The reason for this consensus is a realisation on the part of American nation that it has bled enough pursuing a policy of
starting and engaging in unnecessary, bloody, and destructive wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan – and that if continued, this policy can jeopardise the future of America in the face of an ascendant China.
In other words, the choice was between building and bleeding America, and the collective wisdom of the Americans has chosen building over bleeding. The Afghan war was a haemorrhaging wound that needed to be plugged and healed.
The decision reflects a strategic realisation by the US policy elite that American hegemony over the world is under threat. What is more, these wars (and particularly the Afghan war) were fought with borrowed money, strapping generations of Americans with debt.
There is an urgent sense prevalent in the US that if America is to stem its relative decline, it must cut waste and focus on building its economy and reserves. To begin that journey, termination of the Afghan war was an absolute must.
However, the US will maintain a presence in the region by employing far less resources than required by a trillion-dollar war.
The UK and the European Union are fuming that President Biden has not consulted allies and rightly so as they were in it together. The most likely reason for President Biden not to consult the allies was the apprehension that any consultation could result in long drawn out discussion, delaying the decision, which the US did not want. The US needed a clean break.
This fiasco has raised serious questions about the bankability of an increasingly introverted US for the security of its allies. President Macron contends that the US is no more a reliable partner to defend the EU and that EU should take its full responsibility to defend itself against Russia and China.
This idea was seeded when President Obama oversaw a significant shift towards Asia, and gained traction during the Trump era. There is every reason to believe it would be further strengthened following the recent events in Afghanistan.
The European Union is rich in human and material resources, rich enough to build an effective security apparatus. If that happens, it may be good not only for the Europe but also for the world at large,
making it multipolar. It could open new vistas for international cooperation and conflicts, and the world may look very different in coming years.
The UK is in a very peculiar situation though. Since World War II, the UK has had a special relationship with the US though in practice it means toeing the American line, with few significant exceptions, in foreign affairs of which participation of the UK in recent wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan is a testimony.
This is why Biden’s unilateral pull-out from Afghanistan has infuriated the conservatives. The language they used in the parliamentary debate about America is unheard of before from them. Those hot words reflect their cold fear that the UK has been left high and dry in the wake of Brexit.
The UK has estranged the liberal democracies on its doorstep and the US did not bother to even inform it about its withdrawal plan. That seemingly leaves the UK standing alone in the international affairs. The statement of Prime Minister Boris Johnson about the futility of keeping the Afghan mission going without America reflects the helplessness of the UK in particular and the West in general.
The poignant scenes from the Kabul airport have seared into the minds and emotions of the public. It is heartrending to see mothers handing babies away to strangers hoping they would be brought up to in a strange culture and knowing they may not be able to see them again.
The desperate attempts by people to leave the country by clinging to the planes and then dropping to their deaths have left scars on the peoples’ mind and the same is true for the scrambling multitude of crowds outside the Kabul airport to get inside the airport and ultimately to head off to a safe haven in some western country.
Such desperate scenes have been blamed on President Joe Biden’s decision, but such a blame is not totally justified. No matter when the withdrawal happened, these scenes were inevitable. If it was not August, it could have been October or November or some other month. There was no escape to this predicament.
Some analyst advocating planned evacuation are wrong in assuming that it would have avoided such scenes. Once you start the process of evacuation, the stampede is bound to happen. It will not happen only if you assume that people do not know or understand what is happening and what is coming their way. To make such an assumption would be sheer folly.
One needs to remember that withdrawal is on schedule agreed upon a long time ago. What was not envisaged was the sudden demise of the Afghan government. The whole country was handed over to the Taliban without any fight.
Despite Taliban’s assurances that they would not enter Kabul without agreeing to some sort of political set up, the Afghan government abandoned the city. The speed at which the Afghan government fell was astonishing but there was nothing astonish- ing in its fall.
Western intelligence sources reckoned that it would not survive more than few months or may be a year after the withdrawal of foreign troops. The Afghan government fall was inevitable.
If this is true, then one should not be surprised to see the Afghan government and Afghan army to dissolve so quickly and abruptly. This was the best course of action they could have adopted to save their skin and save the nation from further destruction and bloodshed.
They achieved a peaceful transfer of power by entering into agreements with the Taliban in various districts and provinces. The Taliban’s general amnesty sprang from, among many other factors, such agreements. It was just logical.
In fact, the Taliban wrong-footed the western analysts and policymakers by announcing such steps and behaving in a way what was not expected of them.
The way forward for Afghanistan is that the Taliban stick to their announcements in letter and spirit. They have a golden opportunity to unite the nation and work for the well-being and welfare of the common Afghan citizen.
If they behave and agree to an inclusive set up, they are in for a long haul. If they squander this opportunity, they will not be forgiven by history and their so-called glorious victory will be remembered as one of the darkest moments of Afghan history.
The people who are taking withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Afghani- stan as a defeat for the West and victory for the Taliban are delusional. The US and the West achieved many of their goals a long time ago. In fact they should have left back then because ultimately, they had to leave, if not today then tomorrow.
What they did not achieve was the success of their client regime, a political disposition embodying their view of what kind of a system of the government and state institu- tions Afghanistan should have. President Biden claims they never intended it. Taliban’s success is against the Afghan government which melted away without facing them.
The US and the West might have not been able to bring about reforms in Afghanistan through their supporters, but it seems they have been able to mould the Afghan Taliban in such a way that will be much more benefi- cial to Afghanistan and Afghan society and that too on a permanent footing.
This is likely to be a long-lasting effect of this war and if it is, then despite the heavy cost the Afghans bore of this war, it has achieved something which has never been achieved in Afghan history before: reformed Afghans.
If the US wants to safeguard its interests in the area and wants Afghanistan and the region to flourish, then it must engage the Taliban rather than forsaking them. Regional and international engagements can be used to continually encourage and pressure the Taliban to follow the path of moderation and hold on to their promises and pronouncements. Any other scenario could be a nightmare for all concerned. This opportunity must not go to waste.
Pakistan needs to play its part in bringing lasting peace and prosperity, to Afghani- stan and to the region, by encouraging Afghan groups to sit round the table and work for a genuine all-inclusive government. But they must maintain absolute
neutrality at all times.
Pakistan can also encourage all the Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries – including China, Russia, and the Central Asian Republics – to make a regional policy for the benefit of Afghanistan and the region.
Washington needs to be engaged, as do all other western capitals, for rebuilding Afghanistan and keeping the Taliban to hold to their promises and newly found enlightenment.
Pakistan’s Arab and Middle Eastern friends can play a significant role and Islamabad needs to coordinate with them. Being non-partisan does not mean doing nothing. Pakistan must safeguard its interests.
Taliban must remember that Islam was, is and will continue to be a liberating force for all the oppressed sections of the society be it women, children, or minorities. Liberating the oppressed is one of the fundamental precepts of Islam. Anything oppressive is un-Islamic.
Equally important, any attempt to oppress the masses people is doomed to fail. Let the people of Afghan breathe the air of freedom and tranquillity. Deliberately or otherwise, the world has entrusted Afghanistan to the Taliban. To prove they are worthy of the trust is up to them.
They must work hard to earn internal and external legitimacy or Afghanistan will become be pariah state. Afghanistan as a state will face many challenges for which the Taliban will need the help of the outside world. Without it, Afghanistan may descend again in a protracted civil war and may not survive as a state we know it.
