Ten days into the US–Israel war with Iran, US President Donald Trump insists that Iran’s leadership and administration have been “decimated.” However, several American political scientists warn that the conflict could quickly become a domestic political burden.
Experts say the problem lies less in battlefield developments and more in economic consequences at home. Rising fuel prices, weak market confidence and the absence of a traditional “rally-around-the-flag” effect are raising concerns among analysts.
Professor Russell Lucas of Michigan State University says Americans historically show little tolerance for military casualties, particularly in conflicts perceived as optional. Because the war lacks a clear justification for many voters, he believes public support could erode quickly if casualties increase.
Meanwhile, early polling indicates about 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the military action against Iran. Political analyst David Schultz notes that Trump’s approval rating remains around 40 percent, a figure that has stayed largely unchanged despite major national developments.
According to Schultz, deep political polarisation now limits how much international events can influence domestic opinion. As a result, the classic surge of patriotic support often seen during wars has not appeared.
Economic risks threaten Republican prospects
Analysts argue the war’s biggest political risk may stem from economic pressure on voters. Fuel prices have already increased sharply as the conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from the American Automobile Association shows the national average petrol price has climbed to $3.48 per gallon, rising 48 cents in one week and 58 cents over the past month. Diesel prices have jumped even more sharply, reaching $4.66 per gallon.
Political scientist Mark Caleb Smith says sustained increases in oil prices could damage Republican prospects in upcoming elections. He adds that economic frustration often amplifies losses for the president’s party during midterm contests.
