Hours after the United States and Israel launched a sweeping bombing campaign against Iran on Saturday, US President Donald Trump said the war aims to secure “freedom for the people.”
However, analysts argue that despite official messaging, Trump appears to be seeking the collapse of Iran’s ruling system. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera that achieving regime change without ground forces would prove extremely difficult.
“It seems like they’re not willing to pay certain costs to achieve regime change,” Grieco said, suggesting that secondary objectives may substitute if air power fails to produce sweeping political change.
Similarly, Matthew Duss of the Center for International Policy stressed that air strikes alone rarely dismantle governments. He pointed to Libya in 2011, where a NATO air campaign weakened Muammar Gaddafi but local rebel forces ultimately removed him from power.
Although Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government” once strikes conclude, observers note that no organized domestic force currently appears capable of overthrowing the Islamic Republic.
Concerns Grow Over Potential Ground Operation
Meanwhile, questions persist about whether Washington could deploy ground troops. Duss warned that the war already faces limited public backing, citing a Reuters survey showing roughly one-quarter of Americans support the conflict.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said after a classified briefing that he fears a ground operation may follow. “I am more fearful than ever,” he told reporters.
At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth have outlined narrower goals, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear and drone programs, while insisting the campaign will not become a prolonged war.
