The federal government has formed a high-powered committee to chart a path for sustaining Pakistan’s economy without future IMF programmes. The committee is led by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and aims to prepare a long-term economic roadmap. The move comes as the country approaches the end of its current $7 billion IMF facility.
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said the initiative reflects a critical policy shift. According to him, Pakistan must either continue borrowing or transform its economy through productivity and exports. He stressed that reliance on loans is no longer sustainable.
Exports Seen as Only Viable Escape Route
Ahsan Iqbal stated there is no alternative to rapidly expanding exports. He said exports must reach $60 billion within four years and cross $100 billion by 2035. Without this shift, Pakistan’s economy would remain stuck near $600 billion in GDP.
He added that the national target should be a $1 trillion economy. He questioned why Pakistan cannot reach that level when regional economies have grown far larger. Therefore, the government plans to abandon a status-quo approach.
Manufacturing and High-Value Exports in Focus
The proposed roadmap prioritises export-led growth driven by manufacturing. Iqbal suggested factories should operate even during national holidays to avoid supply disruptions. He explained that idle capacity weakens competitiveness.
Moreover, the government plans to shift from low-value exports to high-value-added products. Selected sectors will be developed to generate multibillion-dollar export earnings. Trade bodies have already been consulted to design district-wise export strategies.
Structural Reforms and Sectoral Expansion
The minister emphasised reforms in energy, taxation, and productivity bottlenecks. He said the next two years offer a crucial reform window. During this period, the country can stabilise while still under an IMF programme.
Additionally, the government aims to expand olive farming and commercial tea production. These measures target import substitution and reduced foreign exchange pressure. Knowledge corridors with the United States and China are also being pursued to secure scholarships.
Economic Indicators Show Mixed Signals
Official data shows GDP growth reached 3.7% in the first quarter of the fiscal year. Agriculture grew by 2.9%, while industry expanded by 9.4%. Services recorded modest growth of 2.4%.
Inflation averaged 5.2% during July to December, lower than last year. However, December saw a rise to 5.6%. Tax revenues increased by 9.5% over six months, although the fiscal deficit widened to 0.8% of GDP.
Manufacturing, Exports, and Remittances Improve
Large-scale manufacturing posted 5% growth between July and October. Despite floods and supply disruptions, exports reached $16.6 billion. Meanwhile, remittances rose 10.5% to $19.7 billion.
The minister said rising remittances reflect overseas confidence. He added that disciplined policies have stabilised key sectors. According to him, sustainable growth remains the government’s central objective.
