An anonymous trader earned approximately $410,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The trader’s account on the prediction platform Polymarket had taken positions in contracts linked to Maduro’s ouster, with odds favoring a distant outcome prior to the weekend.
Before news of the US military operation, the contracts were valued at roughly $34,000. However, the wagers surged in value once the raid occurred, generating massive profits for the trader.
Polymarket data shows the trader first bought $96 worth of contracts on December 27, predicting a US intervention in Venezuela by January 31. Additional similar bets were placed in subsequent days, multiplying potential gains.
The development coincided with broader market reactions. Major stock indexes rose, oil prices climbed, and energy sector shares recorded notable gains after Maduro’s capture.
Venezuela’s government and state oil company PDVSA bonds jumped as much as 30%, driven by expectations of a complex sovereign debt restructuring.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to buy tradable yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world events. When a contract priced at just a few cents pays out at $1, traders with access to non-public information can earn significant profits quickly.
This windfall is likely to draw attention from US lawmakers who are pursuing stricter insider trading regulations. A bipartisan effort is underway to potentially ban lawmakers and federal employees from trading on prediction platforms.
Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres has announced plans to introduce legislation preventing elected officials and federal workers from engaging in bets that could exploit material non-public information.
Polymarket received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September to relaunch operations after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange. However, the CFTC has not confirmed whether it is investigating trades linked to Maduro’s capture.
Despite Americans being restricted from accessing Polymarket, many users reportedly use VPNs to bypass the ban. Past scrutiny has also targeted the platform for potential insider trading concerns.
This high-profile trade highlights the power and risks of prediction markets, particularly when sensitive geopolitical events influence contract outcomes.
