The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has rated its $15.1 billion Country Assistance Program (CAP) for Pakistan (2020–2024) as “highly satisfactory and successful,” despite ongoing challenges in energy, housing, health, and education sectors.
In its Country Assistance Program Review (CAPR), ADB’s Independent Evaluation Department (IED) assessed 113 sovereign lending and technical assistance projects, along with three non-sovereign projects worth $111.4 million. The program was closely aligned with Pakistan’s Vision 2025 and ADB’s Strategy 2030, aiming to support economic reforms, resilience-building, and private sector development.
The review commended strong performance against the 2021–2025 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) targets, with progress noted in tax reform, export growth, climate resilience, disaster response, and social protection. Most projects during the period were rated “effective” or “highly effective.”
In the energy sector, ADB-backed reforms significantly reduced Pakistan’s annual circular debt flow — from Rs450 billion in 2019 to Rs83 billion by 2024. However, the CPS goal of cutting this figure below Rs50 billion by 2025 now seems out of reach. Ongoing issues include high dependence on imported fossil fuels, transmission losses, low recovery rates, and persistent governance challenges.
Housing sector performance also fell short. The mortgage-to-GDP ratio rose only to 0.3% by 2024 — below the target of 0.4%, and just a 20% improvement from baseline.
Health and education sectors struggled due to external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the catastrophic floods of 2022. Health spending temporarily spiked during the pandemic but averaged just 1.2% of GDP — far below the CPS target of 3%. Enrollment goals in education were similarly set back.
Despite these shortfalls, the ADB was applauded for its strategic adaptability. It effectively navigated multiple crises, including political transitions, economic instability, and natural disasters, maintaining the program’s overall relevance and execution quality.
The program earned a “highly satisfactory” rating for efficiency, with high-quality project design, timely implementation, and active stakeholder engagement. It also outperformed ADB-wide benchmarks, reducing the average time from project approval to first disbursement to 22.4 months and achieving a disbursement rate of 125%.
While most initiatives were executed efficiently, a few lagged due to legislative bottlenecks. Still, one in eight lending projects received an “efficient” or “highly efficient” rating.
ADB concluded that deeper reforms are needed in energy, education, and health to achieve Pakistan’s long-term development objectives.
