The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, down from the earlier estimate of 3.2% issued in October 2024. The projection for 2026 remains at 4%.
The IMF’s revised outlook aligns with the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) forecast, which was updated in December 2024 to predict a 3% growth rate for Pakistan in the fiscal year 2024-25, up from 2.8% previously estimated. The ADB attributed this adjustment to increased macroeconomic stability, easing inflationary pressures, and improved investor confidence.
The IMF noted that supportive monetary policies and the removal of import restrictions are expected to boost industrial output and private investment. Global GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 is projected to remain at 3.3%, below the historical average of 3.7%.
Regarding global inflation, the IMF forecasted a decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, although disinflation has slowed in some regions due to persistent inflation. Additionally, the IMF expects a 2.6% decline in energy commodity prices and a 2.5% increase in non-fuel commodity prices in 2025, driven by adverse weather conditions affecting major producers.
The report also highlighted divergent trends across global economies. The United States’ GDP growth is forecasted at 2.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, while the eurozone’s growth is projected at 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The United Kingdom is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
China’s GDP growth is forecasted at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with an emphasis on shifting toward domestic demand-driven growth. Meanwhile, India’s economic expansion is expected to remain robust at 6.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
