In a powerful statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized the ongoing military campaign following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a gunfight in southern Gaza. Sinwar, who had taken over leadership after the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, was considered a primary target by Israel.
However, experts suggest that the impact of Sinwar’s assassination on the ongoing conflict may be limited. Ghoncheh Tazmini, author of Power Couple: Russian-Iranian Alignment in the Middle East, argues that removing leaders from ideologically driven organizations like Hamas does not lead to their downfall. “These groups are structured to endure such losses, ensuring continuity and preserving their core ideology,” she stated.
Sinwar, who had been leading Hamas operations in Gaza since 2017, was known for his fluency in Hebrew, a skill he developed during his lengthy imprisonment in Israel. Tazmini questioned the effectiveness of Israel’s “decapitation” strategy, noting that the earlier assassination of Haniyeh did not significantly weaken Hamas, and she believes Sinwar’s killing will not yield different results.
Experts assert that Hamas is unlikely to face a leadership crisis following Sinwar’s death. Tahani Mustafa from the International Crisis Group indicated that either Khalil al Hayya or Khaled Meshaal would likely step into leadership roles without creating a void. Meshaal, a veteran leader, and Hayya, the current deputy in Gaza, are both viewed as moderate figures.
Mustafa noted that the potential successors are already seen as moderate, suggesting that the group has been conciliatory even under more radical leadership. She emphasized that Hamas’s demands, such as ceasefires and the return of displaced Palestinians, align with international law.
The assassination has provided a temporary boost to Netanyahu’s political standing amid criticism over hostages taken by Hamas. Tazmini views the operation as a tactical win for the Israeli leader, reinforcing his support base. However, she warns that the security situation in Israel may worsen, with possible retaliatory attacks from Hamas or other factions.
Mustafa described Sinwar’s killing as a “symbolic hit” for Hamas, which many Palestinians find inspiring. Sinwar fought back in military uniform, challenging Israeli narratives about his hiding. “The Western world often holds an Orientalist view that Hamas and Palestinians are centered around specific leaders, but that’s not the case,” she concluded.
