The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday risks igniting a broader regional conflict and could influence the chances of a ceasefire to end Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza, several analysts told Al Jazeera.
Haniyeh was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. Hamas accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination, describing it as “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran.”
This attack followed an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday evening in Dahiya, a bustling neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon, which killed Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah. The Beirut strike occurred three days after another attack that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights—a strike Israel attributed to Hezbollah, though the group denies involvement.
The risk of further escalation is high. The killings of Haniyeh and Shukr may prompt measured responses from Iran and Hezbollah, both of which are keen to avoid a full-scale regional war.
Diplomats from the United States and the European Union are reportedly engaged in talks with regional leaders to prevent the situation from worsening. The EU’s efforts are said to be focused on Iran, whose leaders have vowed “harsh revenge” against Israel for Haniyeh’s assassination.
However, any retaliation, even if measured, could escalate the conflict, analysts told Al Jazeera. Experts are uncertain how Hamas, already engaged in a 10-month war with Israel, will or can respond.
Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, noted that the targeting of senior leaders from the “axis of resistance” – a coalition of armed groups opposed to Israel and US influence in the region – represents a significant escalation that could spread the conflict across multiple fronts.
However, she believes Iran is unlikely to seek a major escalation, drawing a parallel to an incident in April when Iran retaliated against an Israeli airstrike on their consulate in Syria with limited force to avoid a broader conflict.
Mortazavi referenced Iran’s April response, where they launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel after an airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Syria killed seven people, including two Iranian generals. Despite Iran’s retaliation, they aimed to minimize the impact to prevent further escalation, a strategy Mortazavi expects might be repeated.
